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Table 4 CausalImpact results

From: The impact of extreme weather on student online learning participation

Time period

Posterior inference

All LMS activity

System

Actual

Cumulative

Actual

Cumulative

NB-WC

Actual

0.17

9.61

0.097

5.621

Prediction (SD)

0.21 (0.018)

11.98 (1.063)

0.13 (0.018)

7.63 (1.044)

95% CI

[0.17, 0.24]

[9.97, 14.10]

[0.096, 0.17]

[5.554, 9.60]

Absolute effect (SD)

− 0.041 (0.018)

− 2.372 (1.063)

− 0.035 (0.018)

− 2.013 (1.044)

95% CI

[− 0.08, − 0.006]

[− 4.49, − 0.36]

[− 0.069, 0.0012]

[− 3.981, 0.0676]

Relative effect (SD)

− 20% (8.9%)

− 20% (8.9%)

− 26% (14%)

− 26% (14%)

95% CI

[− 37%, − 3%]

[− 37%, − 3%]

[− 52%, 0.88%]

[− 52%, 0.88%]

NB-NC

Actual

0.18

7.41

0.11

4.43

Prediction (SD)

0.23 (0.018)

9.25 (0.743)

0.15 (0.017)

6.30 (0.710)

95% CI

[0.19, 0.26]

[7.83, 10.77]

[0.12, 0.19]

[4.96, 7.71]

Absolute effect (SD)

− 0.045 (0.018)

− 1.843 (0.743)

− 0.046 (0.017)

− 1.872 (0.710)

95% CI

[− 0.082, − 0.01]

[− 3.360, − 0.43]

[− 0.08, − 0.013]

[− 3.28, − 0.527]

Relative effect (SD)

− 20% (8%)

− 20% (8%)

− 30% (11%)

− 30% (11%)

95% CI

[− 36%, − 4.6%]

[− 36%, − 4.6%]

[− 52%, − 8.4%]

[− 52%, − 8.4%]

WB-WC

Actual

0.18

9.07

0.1

5.2

Prediction (SD)

0.21 (0.018)

10.67 (0.904)

0.14 (0.02)

6.97 (0.98)

95% CI

[0.18, 0.25]

[8.79, 12.39]

[0.098, 0.18]

[4.911, 8.86]

Absolute effect (SD)

− 0.03 (0.018)

− 1.59 (0.904)

− 0.035 (0.02)

− 1.740 (0.98)

95% CI

[− 0.066, 0.006]

[− 3.317, 0.287]

[− 0.073, 0.0065]

[− 3.631, 0.3233]

Relative effect (SD)

− 15% (8.5%)

− 15% (8.5%)

− 25% (14%)

− 25% (14%)

95% CI

[− 31%, 2.7%]

[− 31%, 2.7%]

[− 52%, 4.6%]

[− 52%, 4.6%]

WB-NC

Actual

0.21

6.87

0.12

4.04

Prediction (SD)

0.24 (0.018)

7.94 (0.592)

0.17 (0.02)

5.57 (0.65)

95% CI

[0.21, 0.28]

[6.83, 9.13]

[0.13, 0.2]

[4.28, 6.7]

Absolute effect (SD)

− 0.03 (0.018)

− 1.07 (0.592)

− 0.046 (0.02)

− 1.525 (0.65)

95% CI

[− 0.068, 0.0013]

[− 2.256, 0.0418]

[− 0.081, − 0.0072]

[− 2.659, − 0.2391]

Relative effect (SD)

− 13% (7.5%)

− 13% (7.5%)

− 27% (12%)

− 27% (12%)

95% CI

[− 28%, 0.53%]

[− 28%, 0.53%]

[− 48%, − 4.3%]

[− 48%, − 4.3%]

  1. Bold results are statistically significant