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Table 5 CausalImpact results

From: The impact of extreme weather on student online learning participation

Time period

Posterior inference

Assignment

Quiz

Actual

Cumulative

Actual

Cumulative

NB-WC

Actual

0.34

19.47

0.16

9.14

Prediction (SD)

0.38 (0.039)

21.86 (2.242)

0.17 (0.022)

9.76 (1.253)

95% CI

[0.3, 0.45]

[17.2, 26.13]

[0.12, 0.21]

[7.25, 12.10]

Absolute effect (SD)

− 0.041 (0.039)

− 2.383 (2.242)

− 0.011 (0.022)

− 0.621 (1.253)

95% CI

[− 0.11, 0.039]

[− 6.66, 2.234]

[− 0.051, 0.033]

[− 2.965, 1.891]

Relative effect (SD)

− 11% (10%)

− 11% (10%)

− 6.4% (13%)

− 6.4% (13%)

95% CI

[− 30%, 10%]

[− 30%, 10%]

[− 30%, 19%]

[− 30%, 19%]

NB-NC

Actual

0.31

12.78

0.18

7.38

Prediction (SD)

0.38 (0.038)

15.53 (1.572)

0.17 (0.024)

7.14 (0.968)

95% CI

[0.3, 0.45]

[12.4, 18.56]

[0.13, 0.22]

[5.17, 8.94]

Absolute effect (SD)

− 0.067 (0.038)

− 2.749 (1.572)

0.0059 (0.024)

0.2425 (0.968)

95% CI

[− 0.14, 0.0083]

[− 5.78, 0.3402]

[− 0.038, 0.054]

[− 1.561, 2.212]

Relative effect (SD)

− 18% (10%)

− 18% (10%)

3.4% (14%)

3.4% (14%)

95% CI

[− 37%, 2.2%]

[− 37%, 2.2%]

[− 22%, 31%]

[− 22%, 31%]

WB-WC

Actual

0.36

18.19

0.18

8.98

Prediction (SD)

0.38 (0.04)

18.94 (2.01)

0.18 (0.024)

8.81 (1.178)

95% CI

[0.3, 0.46]

[15.0, 22.78]

[0.13, 0.22]

[6.41, 10.91]

Absolute effect (SD)

− 0.015 (0.04)

− 0.754 (2.01)

0.0034 (0.024)

0.1689 (1.178)

95% CI

[− 0.092, 0.064]

[− 4.592, 3.204]

[− 0.039, 0.051]

[− 1.931, 2.570]

Relative effect (SD)

− 4% (11%)

− 4% (11%)

1.9% (13%)

1.9% (13%)

95% CI

[− 24%, 17%]

[− 24%, 17%]

[− 22%, 29%]

[− 22%, 29%]

WB-NC

Actual

0.35

11.50

0.22

7.22

Prediction (SD)

0.38 (0.04)

12.62 (1.32)

0.19 (0.027)

6.19 (0.904)

95% CI

[0.3, 0.46]

[10.0, 15.28]

[0.13, 0.24]

[4.43, 7.90]

Absolute effect (SD)

− 0.03 (0.04)

− 1.12 (1.32)

0.031 (0.027)

1.032 (0.904)

95% CI

[− 0.11, 0.044]

[− 3.78, 1.461]

[− 0.021, 0.085]

[− 0.677, 2.789]

Relative effect (SD)

− 8.9% (10%)

− 8.9% (10%)

17% (15%)

17% (15%)

95% CI

[− 30%, 12%]

[− 30%, 12%]

[− 11%, 45%]

[− 11%, 45%]

  1. No results are statistically significant